NAR Warnings 2025: Frightened Buyers and Sellers Need to Know

Key Issues

• National Association of Realtors with a bleak outlook on real estate sales
• 2025 through 2026 will see some contradicting flux compared to economist’s predictions
• Rates ranging from 6.08% to 7.44% in 2024 will not see a decrease in 2025 even with cuts
• With reduced remote placings people are heading back into the city for dwellings

Real estate economists are beginning to chime in on the topic of home sales and mortgage rates. The most recent election, economy and demographics buying home these days can affect the real estate market.

Two years and people still have difficulties in real estate agent, mortgage brokerage, and title. NAR predicting higher than normal housing sales. Seeing a growth in all-cash buyers, multigenerational purchases and single buyer areas of the market.

From the seller’s side there is a positive outlook. Prices continue to increase over the past couple of years. The inventory is also on the rise as the economy is seeing some improvement. NAR’s Lawrence Yun speculated after presidential elections, there’s boost in home sales”. Historically a rise during tax season provides shows the market will continue to improve. With home sales increasing during the first quarter of 2025.

NAR Predictions for the housing market 2025

With the number of jobs improving and increases in the stock market, these act as social indicators that we are in a time of growth. This causes more motivation for American to act. Yun predicted up to 2 million jobs to be produced in 2025 and duplicate amount in 2026 which could have a positive effect on the housing market. Even with historical hardships over 2023 and 2024 there was a slight uptick of 3% year-over-year in September of 2024. Positive signifiers are also the fact that inventory of existing homes has increased as well as the U.S. population by 70 million since 1995 (NAR).

Mortgage rates have also played a major role in the housing market. The Freddie Mac showed an average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has ranged between 6.08% to 7.44% in 2024. Even with the Federal Reserve cutting rates, it has projected additional four more cuts over 2025. Yun has stated that “mortgage rates will not decline in unison” paralelling the FED rate cuts. Even still with a large budget deficit we are still seeing less mortgage money available that will reduce the chances of seeing a semi 4% like the previous Trump presidency.

As homeowners rejoice due to astronomical gains in their equity for their current property, buyers on the other hand have been struggling with the affordability of purchasing a new home. The median net worth amongst homeowners and renters continues to grow exponentially. With an estimated forecast of $410,700, increasing by 2% over 2024 and approaching 2025 and another $3,300 up another 2% by the beginning of 2026.

New buyers emerging from the current shift in the housing market

Included with the catastrophic shift in home prices in past year and predicted to continue its volatility in through 2025 to 2026, the profile of the home buyers has also shifted drastically.

Cash buyers have become the most noticeable increase over 2024 heading into 2025. The population seeing the large increases or lack of decreases in the mortgage rates as promised by the FED in 2024 has pushed people to skip mortgages all together. 26% of homebuyers are now deciding to purchase homes all cash. This is projected to increase to 31% for repeat buyers by 2026. Also, with the horrendous upfront costs of purchasing a home with the normal downpayment falling outside the reasonable range, the average age of first-time homebuyers is increasing.

At 38 it is said that people are having to save for longer periods of time to even entertain the thought of buying a home. Along with living costs it is making it increasingly difficult for purchasing a home to become a reality for most people. We are seeing people even pooling money from parents, up to 20% of individuals liquidated stock and asset portfolios, as well as pulling from 401k’s and crypto portfolios to afford a downpayment. Downpayments are reportedly the highest they have been in 30-years.

Another key point is that people are heading back into the cities after the Covid period had people fleeing for the suburbs of different major metropolitan areas (BCPMortgage). People are combining incomes to afford a smaller space more localized to city centers to offset the cost of transportation. Even younger generations are moving back in with their relatives to save on living expenses.

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